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Warming Could Push the Atlantic Past a ‘Tipping Point’ This Century
本世纪气候变暖或推动大西洋走向“临界点”
The last time there was a major slowdown in the mighty network of ocean currents that shapes the climate around the North Atlantic, it seems to have plunged Europe into a deep cold for over a millennium.
上次影响北大西洋周边气候的强大洋流网络出现重大减缓时,似乎将欧洲推入了长达一千多年的严寒。
That was roughly 12,800 years ago, when not many people were around to experience it. But in recent decades, human-driven warming could be causing the currents to slow once more, and scientists have been working to determine whether and when they might undergo another great weakening, which would have ripple effects for weather patterns across a swath of the globe.
那是大约1.28万年前,当时的人类亲历者寥寥无几。但近几十年来,人类活动导致的气候变暖有可能令洋流再次减速,科学家们一直在试图明确,洋流是否以及何时会再次经历大幅减弱,这将导致全球大片地区的天气模式产生连锁反应。
A pair of researchers in Denmark this week put forth a bold answer: A sharp weakening of the currents, or even a shutdown, could be upon us by century’s end.
本周,丹麦的两名研究人员提了一个大胆的回应:到本世纪末,洋流可能会急剧减弱,甚至完全停滞。
It was a surprise even to the researchers that their analysis showed a potential collapse coming so soon, one of them, Susanne Ditlevsen, a professor of statistics at the University of Copenhagen, said in an interview. Climate scientists generally agree that the Atlantic circulation will decline this century, but there’s no consensus on whether it will stall out before 2100.
其中一名研究者、哥本哈根大学统计学教授苏珊娜·迪特莱夫森在接受采访时表示,他们的分析表明,潜在的洋流崩溃可能很快到来,这令研究人员也大吃一惊。气候科学家普遍认为大西洋环流将于本世纪会减速,但对于是否会在2100年之前停止流动尚未达成共识。
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