THE FIRST birthday of Britain’s Labour government on July 4th will be a miserable, cakeless affair. The party’s polling is dreadful, trailing Reform UK, an insurgency from the right led by Nigel Farage. Promises to cut hospital waiting-lists, build more houses and stop migrant boats are off-track. And on July 1st Sir Keir Starmer was humiliated by a huge rebellion, as Labour MPs gutted a bill to cut sickness and disability benefits. In Parliament the next day his chancellor wept and yields on Britain’s debt soared. The prime minister has never looked weaker.